The digital marketing world is undergoing a seismic shift—a phenomenon many are calling “The Great Decoupling” in SEO. This transformation, driven by the rapid adoption of AI-powered search features like Google’s AI Overviews (AIO), is fundamentally altering how users interact with search engines and, more importantly, how traffic flows to publishers and brands. The impact is clear: organic search traffic is plummeting, even as impressions remain steady or grow, marking the end of the era where ranking high on Google guaranteed a steady stream of visitors.
This was shared by Barry Schwartz (aka Rustybrick), on of the top SEO influencers on X.
What Is the Great Decoupling?
Historically, SEO success was measured by a straightforward relationship: more impressions meant more clicks, and more clicks meant more visitors. This tight coupling between impressions and clicks formed the backbone of digital publishing and content marketing. However, with the rollout of AI Overviews, this relationship has fractured. Now, websites often see their content surfaced in search results—sometimes even more frequently than before—but users are far less likely to click through. This is the essence of the Great Decoupling: impressions and clicks have become uncoupled, with impressions holding steady or rising, while clicks and traffic drop off a cliff.
The Role of AI Overviews
Google’s AI Overviews, introduced widely in 2024, sit atop the search results page, providing synthesized answers to user queries by aggregating information from multiple sources. These AI-generated summaries often satisfy the user’s intent directly on the search page, eliminating the need to click through to individual websites. As a result, a staggering 60% of searches now yield zero clicks, as users find what they need without leaving Google’s ecosystem. For publishers, this means that even if their content is referenced, they receive little to no traffic in return.
The Data: Organic Traffic in Freefall
The numbers paint a stark picture. Research shows that AI Overviews can cause declines in organic traffic ranging from 15% to 64%, depending on the industry and search type High-profile sites like HubSpot have seen their monthly organic visits drop by as much as 75% in less than two years, while educational and technical platforms like Chegg and Stack Overflow have experienced similar declines as users turn to AI for instant answers.
The attached chart further illustrates this trend, showing the monthly organic search traffic for major publishers like Business Insider, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and HuffPost. Since the introduction of AI Overviews, all have experienced significant declines in traffic, with no sign of recovery.
Why Is This Happening?
Several factors are driving the Great Decoupling:
- Direct Answers and Zero-Click Searches: AI Overviews provide concise, authoritative answers, reducing the need for users to visit external sites.
- Personalized and Contextual Results: AI algorithms better understand user intent, delivering precisely what users seek without requiring further navigation.
- Lower Visibility for Traditional Listings: AI-generated content pushes traditional organic links further down the page, sometimes by more than 1,500 pixels, making them less likely to be seen or clicked.
- Changing User Behavior: Users now expect immediate, tailored answers and are increasingly comfortable engaging with AI-powered platforms, further reducing reliance on traditional web search.
The New SEO Reality
For SEO professionals and publishers, the implications are profound:
- Content Must Resonate, Not Just Rank: The focus shifts from ranking for keywords to creating content that is authoritative, trustworthy, and likely to be referenced by AI systems.
- Diversification Is Essential: Relying solely on Google for traffic is no longer viable. Brands must expand their presence to platforms like YouTube, Reddit, TikTok, and AI chatbots, where audiences are migrating.
- Technical SEO and Structured Data Matter More: Ensuring content is easily understood and indexed by AI algorithms—through schema markup and structured data—can improve the chances of being cited in AI Overviews.
- Measurement Is More Challenging: Traditional analytics tools struggle to track performance in an AI-dominated landscape, requiring new approaches to understand user engagement and traffic sources.
The Path Forward
The Great Decoupling is not a temporary blip—it is the new normal. Gartner predicts that traditional search volume will drop 25% by 2026, and organic traffic could shrink by over 50% as users embrace AI-powered search11. Brands and publishers must adapt quickly, embracing AI-driven strategies, creating content that truly adds value, and diversifying their digital presence.
As one digital director put it:
“It’s no longer enough to rank; the goal is to resonate.”
In the age of AI Overviews, the winners will be those who understand the new rules of engagement—where trust, authority, and adaptability trump mere keyword rankings. The Great Decoupling is here, and the future of SEO belongs to those who evolve with it.
